So you do just that. As it turns out, traders just reacted to the news but the trend continued and the price kept heading lower! What some traders do, and what we suggest you do as well, is that they plot a couple of moving averages on their charts instead of just ONE. This gives them a clearer signal of whether the pair is trending up or down depending on the order of the moving averages.
On your chart, it would look like this:.
As you can see, you can use moving averages to help show whether a pair is trending up or down. Both of these build the basic structure of the Forex trading strategies below. This moving average trading strategy uses the EMA , because this type of average is designed to respond quickly to price changes. Here are the strategy steps.
How to Use the Moving Average in Forex Trading -
Forex traders often use a short-term MA crossover of a long-term MA as the basis for a trading strategy. Play with different MA lengths or time frames to see which works best for you. Moving average envelopes are percentage-based envelopes set above and below a moving average. The type of moving average that is set as the basis for the envelopes does not matter, so forex traders can use either a simple, exponential or weighted MA. Forex traders should test out different percentages, time intervals, and currency pairs to understand how they can best employ an envelope strategy.
On the one-minute chart below, the MA length is 20 and the envelopes are 0. Settings, especially the percentage, may need to be changed from day to day depending on volatility. Use settings that align the strategy below to the price action of the day. Ideally, trade only when there is a strong overall directional bias to the price. Then, most traders only trade in that direction. If the price is in an uptrend, consider buying once the price approaches the middle-band MA and then starts to rally off of it.
In a strong downtrend, considering shorting when the price approaches the middle-band and then starts to drop away from it. Once a short is taken, place a stop-loss one pip above the recent swing high that just formed. Once a long trade is taken, place a stop-loss one pip below the swing low that just formed. Consider exiting when the price reaches the lower band on a short trade or the upper band on a long trade. Alternatively, set a target that is at least two times the risk.
For example, if risking five pips, set a target 10 pips away from the entry.
The moving average ribbon can be used to create a basic forex trading strategy based on a slow transition of trend change. It can be utilized with a trend change in either direction up or down.
What is a Moving Average?
The creation of the moving average ribbon was founded on the belief that more is better when it comes to plotting moving averages on a chart. The ribbon is formed by a series of eight to 15 exponential moving averages EMAs , varying from very short-term to long-term averages, all plotted on the same chart. The resulting ribbon of averages is intended to provide an indication of both the trend direction and strength of the trend. A steeper angle of the moving averages — and greater separation between them, causing the ribbon to fan out or widen — indicates a strong trend.
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Traditional buy or sell signals for the moving average ribbon are the same type of crossover signals used with other moving average strategies. Numerous crossovers are involved, so a trader must choose how many crossovers constitute a good trading signal. An alternate strategy can be used to provide low-risk trade entries with high-profit potential. The strategy outlined below aims to catch a decisive market breakout in either direction, which often occurs after a market has traded in a tight and narrow range for an extended period of time.
To use this strategy, consider the following steps:. Additionally, a nine-period EMA is plotted as an overlay on the histogram. The histogram shows positive or negative readings in relation to a zero line. While most often used in forex trading as a momentum indicator, the MACD can also be used to indicate market direction and trend. There are various forex trading strategies that can be created using the MACD indicator. Here is an example. The first set has EMAs for the prior three, five, eight, 10, 12 and 15 trading days.
Simple Moving Average (SMA) Explained
Daryl Guppy, the Australian trader and inventor of the GMMA, believed that this first set highlights the sentiment and direction of short-term traders. A second set is made up of EMAs for the prior 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 and 60 days; if adjustments need to be made to compensate for the nature of a particular currency pair, it is the long-term EMAs that are changed.
This second set is supposed to show longer-term investor activity. If a short-term trend does not appear to be gaining any support from the longer-term averages, it may be a sign the longer-term trend is tiring out. Refer back the ribbon strategy above for a visual image. With the Guppy system, you could make the short-term moving averages all one color, and all the longer-term moving averages another color.
Watch the two sets for crossovers, like with the Ribbon. When the shorter averages start to cross below or above the longer-term MAs, the trend could be turning.