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You are likely to get uncomfortable, perhaps even a little angry. This is what you want to expose… If you do this exercise and you feel anything more than complete calm and peace, then you know that the number you filled in the blank above was too much.
Repeat this step each night with a smaller number until you reach the point where you can accept the loss and wake up the next morning without it still being on your mind. You may find that your number is zero and that is OK, but it means trading is not for you. Better to find out through this exercise than the actual loss of money. They real key is to be honest with yourself and find a number you can truly live with. Losing and dealing with it is part of successful trading.
Accept that now and begin to build your method around it. Having a clear understanding of leverage and risk limits is the most important part of successful trading plan. Make sure you fully understand the above concepts and do the exercise.
TRADING WITH PIVOT LINES
Driving to school or work is a perfect example. You do not drive to work or school or the store a different way each time, do you? Of course not, in fact, in the event that there is construction and you are forced to take a detour, we are such creatures of habit we actually get mad at having to change our routine. If you learn nothing else remember this one point…chart patterns do NOT repeat themselves per say.
Humans repeat themselves and we witness that repetition through recurring chart patterns. I use a very old tried-and-true method. Since then, the original pattern has evolved and others have also been discovered. These patterns work for a number of reasons. Part of why they work is the fact that humans repeat themselves time after time, and the study of this repetition is sometimes called the study of cycles. You can clearly see that these patterns work the majority of the time. Still, not all of the patterns are worth taking as trades just because probability is good. Favorable probability is NOT enough by itself.
The best filter I have found is simply calculating the risk vs. Many methods do not provide a clear methodology for this, but the beauty of harmonic patterns is that they do. We will talk much more about risk reward ratios in a bit. All harmonic patterns are little more than a set of specific Fibonacci retracements or extension ratios that 15 www. I would like to briefly mention about why they are used.
The Fibonacci ratio, as it is often called, is not something that the man who it is named after made up or even discovered for himself. It was a ratio that had been discovered thousands of years before him and was handed down through the ages. Modern mathematicians as well as scientists from almost all fields have since confirmed that this ratio 1. Fibonacci sequences appear in biological settings, such as branching in trees, arrangement of leaves on a stem, the fruitlets of a pineapple, the flowering of an artichoke, an uncurling fern and the arrangement of spines on a pine cone.
No scientist can truly say why it is so prevalent, only that it is indeed prevalent. I could go on for days with examples, but instead I will encourage you to do your own research. Fibonacci numbers and ratios are far more valuable than the vast majority of the other trading tools available when used correctly.
Unfortunately, the majority of traders using Fibonacci ratios do so incorrectly and 16 www. Exactly why they work is still debated, but 17 www. The nice part about technology is that software provided when you joined the Inner Circle will do all of these otherwise tedious measurements for you. Now this is not an excuse to be lazy and not do your homework, but it will save you time. Gartley Pattern Below is a diagram of the Gartley pattern. To keep things simple, I will explain the bullish pattern first. The bearish pattern is an inverted bullish pattern, but the ratios and rules are all the same.
In the chart above, the X point represents a recent relative low in a market. From that point the market rallies to the A point, and then begins a normal pullback towards the B point. Then, the market begins to rally again from the B point and attempts to retest the former highs at A. This retest will form the C point and can be anything from a.
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Then, after the market fails to break out above the prior highs at C, you will begin to see it move lower and retest the support at B which will fail until the market moves to the 1. The D point, or PRZ, is roughly a. So while that all may seem complicated at first; it is really just a recurring sequence of specific Fibonacci ratios. There are three other harmonic patterns that the software identifies for us. They are the Butterfly, Bat, and Crab patterns. We will take a look at each of them. The Butterfly This pattern was originally discovered in by Bryce Gilmore and is one of the most common patterns you will come across.
Notice the key difference between it and the original Gartley is that the D point is below the X point. This pattern requires a very small stop-loss and usually provides an almost exact reversal in the Potential Reversal Zone. The B point retracement must be less than a 0. The Bat utilizes 21 www. These patterns have been found to work in all time frames and all markets. This method can easily be applied to trading stocks, futures, or any other market. You need to decide which time frames you want to work with.
Short-term time frames will require you to spend more time in front of the computer and are often more stressful, so keep that in mind.
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I prefer to trade the 15 minute and 1 hour charts for the most part, but do keep my eyes on all time frames. This is where the real work comes in, so pay attention! Bigger is generally better. Think of this like the foundation of a house; the more bricks you use the stronger the house is likely to be. So if it is flat, it will have relatively few price bars between each point. Conversely, a fat pattern has many bars between each point. In the charts below you can see the top one clearly has many more bars between each point than the one below it.
However, this does not imply that one will work and the other will not.
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It is simply a way to assess which ones we want and which we do not. The reason we do not want the smaller ones is simply because they will rarely give us an acceptable risk-to-reward ratio. The super structure is simply all the measurements that the software does for us. Find this by zooming all the way out on your charts and look where the dotted lines with the Fibonacci ratio measurements start. The sub structure is the pattern itself and will, most of the time, be highlighted in blue.