We have a 1. Will the credit markets continue to function normally; what about the crowded Emerging Markets and short dollar trades? However, here's the point: tight financial conditions are coming regardless of what the Fed does. It is unavoidable precisely because of the humongous extent and duration these borrowing costs have been manipulated.
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There's no end in sight for the trap our central bank is in. For without the massive and indiscriminate purchases of the Fed, our Treasury auctions would fail.
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Meaning, private buyers would only show up after a super spike in yields; but that would render the government insolvent, along with bonds across the entire fixed-income spectrum. This, I remind you, is while debt service costs are at a record low and some bps below average.
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Hence, my conclusion regarding the nefarious trade of central banking is irrefutable. Our bond market is now in revolt. The conundrum now is that the Fed must continue to print money at a record pace to keep asset bubbles from crashing. However, if central bankers keep monetizing debt in its reckless pursuit of higher inflation, the disruptive move higher in bond yields could become absolutely intractable and catastrophic for these same asset bubbles.
Later on this year, and into , we will be looking at an economy and stock market that will be suffering from higher taxes, higher interest rates on a massively increased corporate and government debt burden and much higher inflation. We may be faced with the fact that we will be living with this virus, along with various restrictions and lockdowns even after the vaccines have been fully administered. God forbid this to happen, but we must remain vigilant. Hence, even if the market survives this late spring early summer's interest rate spike, we will still have to deal with the eventual reconciliation of these asset bubbles once the record-breaking fiscal and monetary cliff arrives.
Freedom fatality of the Fed
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